Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
