Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
